Last month we talked about using Popscores as a discovery tool; looking into artists that are as yet unfamiliar but show a strong connection in a small segment. If you remember: Big Fish Small Pond. So when an artist is in the small pond then all that matters is to increase the size of the pond (Familiarity).

This month, I would like to expand on this using the example of Alphabeat.

We know with young acts, particularly in the CHR/Pop segment, that the first point of connection is the song. In the Pop genre, traditional connection points such as live play, music press and the internet are usually later in the chain. For Alphabeat, it was the song that built the core connection. ‘Fascination’ had early support from Radio 1 and ILR came on board fairly quickly, exposing Fascination to large audiences.

Alphabeat’s main objective now is to continue growing their Familiarity, which in turn will build a stronger connection.

It’s a simple numbers game: More exposure = More Love = More Sales.

That formula doesn’t apply all the time, but it does apply when an artist has a strong starting position, a strong connection even in the smallest market.

Naturally, the size of the total market segment depends on how many people generally listen to the type of music, say Pop. This is what we call Market Potential.

For those who regularly test new music with EMR, the term Market Potential is a familiar one. It identifies the percentage of consumers with a preference for a certain sound.

According to current EMR HitForecasts, the Pop genre has a market share of around 55% MktPo, Rock around 65%, HipHop around 45%, Dance around 30% in the UK .

Although we measure Market Potential for each song, we can safely assume that Alphabeat fits into the Pop Category and that’s a comfortable market segment (55%) with massive sales potential (that depends on the level a song can convert familiarity to love which in turn converts to sales at a rate of approx 70%).

So at 55% MktPo, there is plenty of scope to turn familiarity into sales.

For an artist in the Dance genre, it is more difficult to generate sales through familiarity since the market size is smaller. To make this a little clearer lets look at the country music niche. Dolly Parton is a highly familiar artist; however a new album from her is unlikely to generate as many sales as a new Nickelback album for example. That’s simply because Nickelback’s market(Rock) has a 65% share whilst Dolly Parton’s market(Country) has an 12% share. That’s not to say that 12% market share cannot generate significant sales, it’s simply a lot harder, especially for a new artist.

PopScores tracks the increase of awareness and informed awareness over time and, more importantly, across each of the 10 consumer segments.

This month Alphabeat saw an increase of 5% in Name Awareness and 3% in Informed Awareness. Major growth again from teens but also a substantial growth in the 20-29 segment lead by 20-29 year old women, where Name Awareness grew from 26% to 34%. That’s not too far from the teenage awareness of 40% and a second single is likely to increase Familiarity significantly.

Another good example of correlated awareness/sales growth is Leona Lewis.

The graph below shows how in the early part of 2007, following her X-Factor win in late 2006, most of her connection scores had calmed. Familiarity did not suffer, but the silence had somewhat decreased her overall Like scores and increased dislikes significantly. Her Popscore slipped from a credible 20 to a low 13 during the summer. People nowadays are extremely impatient and can quickly lose an emotional connection to an artist if that connection is not stimulated.

When she arrived back with the single Bleeding Love, her score recovered and grew significantly. Her awareness gap nearly closed and positives grew accordingly. Unusually, despite this significant rise in familiarity, negatives only increased slightly, far less than is commonly observed with such a high level of overall growth.

Purchase intention and Love tripled since the summer of 2007 and positives grew far more significantly then the norm which shows the potential of future purchase conversions: More Awareness = More Love = More Sales.