There are of course those in the industry that continue to pursue the big markets. These guys are often associated with the old school. Truth be told, they are the ones who will probably drive the music industry forwards into a more profitable world. In theory everyone is going after the same markets but there are some who seek to unify segments into major markets while others search vainly for success in the long tail.  .

Greatest success in the industry has almost always come from those artists who were able to unify the masses and that simply hasn’t changed and probably never will. PopScores shows exactly that, month by month. Only very few people are remotely interested in the millions of tracks that are available through subscription services like Napster or Spotify. It can’t work. Let’s learn from YouTube. The reason YouTube works so well is because they got the model right of how people want to view videos. YouTube runs “playlists” with a few featured videos and then there are the “most viewed”, which is a “cosmic audience conscious” or at least a chart that measures what the majority of people is “into” right now.

It’s not the billion daily views that essentially generates the hype. Surely it doesn’t hurt to have practically everything available, however, much has changed since the early days of YouTube, and there are many clips that are not available on YouTube anymore and yet the traffic stats are not in decline. When one studies PopScores, one can see that there is a “group consciousness” in the UK that shows unified audiences for some artists and it is the job of the Music Industry to continue to find those artists and songs that speak the language of the masses.

The newer artists within the cosmic consciousness of music are strongly embedded in the British public’s heart. The Kings Of Leon, Snow Patrol, Kaiser Chiefs, Pink and The Killers are currently achieve scores that are usually only within the realm of  long established artists. However, these are not new artists. It takes more than just one platinum plus selling album to establish this level of emotional connection.  

The big movements this week come from artists on their way to the top of the British consciousness. The Black Eyed Peas have another striking record on the radio and their PopScore rose by a strong 2 points with the strongest advance in the 30+ female market which bodes well for album sales. The Peas have been around long enough to get the level of connection that we understand as credibility and trust. To be fair they are not too far away, currently ranking as the 12^th most popular artist in the UK.

The highest climb this month was achieved by Michael Jackson, as the news of his death sank in deeper. During the month his PopScore rose by 5 points, the largest climb in a single month we have ever seen for any artist. He now ranks as the 11^th most popular artist in the UK. The increase of affection comes from across the board of demos.

Remarkably, Michael Jackson is now the 4^th most popular artist with teenagers; a considerable achievement given that he is surrounded by artists like Kings Of Leon, Black Eyed Peas, Pink, The Killers and Beyonce Knowles, all of whom are much younger than him. Michael makes it near the top spot with 20-29 year olds, claiming number 2 position, just behind the Kings Of Leon. The most difficult segments for Michael Jackson are ironically the 30-39 year olds who rank him at nr 20 and the 40-49 year olds who rank him at 28 and his own age group, the 50-59 year olds who rank him 36^th.

To get an idea of how this compares to last year, in November 08, Michael Jackson ranked position 54th overall!

Last but not least Beyonce’s visibility has also made a positive change. She advanced another 2 points, most of the additional affection coming from females 20-39. She’s had a good run of hit records in recent months which is naturally paying off now.

With Michael Jackson turning fifty, news reports about impending bankruptcy and then the announcement of the O2 gigs in London early this year, the British public started to feel the passion again for the artist. His Negative scores declined markedly (to 27%), his Purchase Propensity climbed from 6 to 10% which put him in the same company as Leona Lewis, Robbie Williams and Girls Aloud and his Love score rose by 40% to 14%. In other words, he transformed into an artist with serious sales potential in the UK.

In terms of familiarity, Michael Jackson belongs to the exclusive 99% club; only a very few artists manage to score an informed awareness of that level. It means that effectively the entire UK population of 13-59 year olds has an opinion of Michael Jackson. Only Robbie Williams, Madonna, Spice Girls and Kylie Minogue have recently achieved scores like this

Even more interesting is the company he is in when looking at artists with the most informed awareness amongst teenagers. Michael Jackson is certainly the only 50 year old artist who is still very well known by Teens. The somewhat older Beatles score 86% informed awareness and Bruce Springsteen only 59%.

Top 10 Most Familiar Artists Amongst Teens

What is particularly amazing is where the passion for Michael Jackson comes from. It’s not 40 year old females as one might expect given the heritage factor; no it comes from females 13-29 (16% love) and males 20-29 (19%). Indeed, amongst the latter demographic he is the 6th most popular artist by Purchase Propensity and is only beaten by Oasis, Kings of Leon, The Killers, RHCP and Coldplay.

Michael Jackson was undoubtedly on his way to reclaim his throne as the King of Pop in the UK. Next month we will find out the extent to which his death influences the emotional connection of the nation with him.

This month, I would like to expand on this using the example of Alphabeat.

We know with young acts, particularly in the CHR/Pop segment, that the first point of connection is the song. In the Pop genre, traditional connection points such as live play, music press and the internet are usually later in the chain. For Alphabeat, it was the song that built the core connection. ‘Fascination’ had early support from Radio 1 and ILR came on board fairly quickly, exposing Fascination to large audiences.

Alphabeat’s main objective now is to continue growing their Familiarity, which in turn will build a stronger connection.

It’s a simple numbers game: More exposure = More Love = More Sales.

That formula doesn’t apply all the time, but it does apply when an artist has a strong starting position, a strong connection even in the smallest market.

Naturally, the size of the total market segment depends on how many people generally listen to the type of music, say Pop. This is what we call Market Potential.

For those who regularly test new music with EMR, the term Market Potential is a familiar one. It identifies the percentage of consumers with a preference for a certain sound.

According to current EMR HitForecasts, the Pop genre has a market share of around 55% MktPo, Rock around 65%, HipHop around 45%, Dance around 30% in the UK .

Although we measure Market Potential for each song, we can safely assume that Alphabeat fits into the Pop Category and that’s a comfortable market segment (55%) with massive sales potential (that depends on the level a song can convert familiarity to love which in turn converts to sales at a rate of approx 70%).

So at 55% MktPo, there is plenty of scope to turn familiarity into sales.

For an artist in the Dance genre, it is more difficult to generate sales through familiarity since the market size is smaller. To make this a little clearer lets look at the country music niche. Dolly Parton is a highly familiar artist; however a new album from her is unlikely to generate as many sales as a new Nickelback album for example. That’s simply because Nickelback’s market(Rock) has a 65% share whilst Dolly Parton’s market(Country) has an 12% share. That’s not to say that 12% market share cannot generate significant sales, it’s simply a lot harder, especially for a new artist.

PopScores tracks the increase of awareness and informed awareness over time and, more importantly, across each of the 10 consumer segments.

This month Alphabeat saw an increase of 5% in Name Awareness and 3% in Informed Awareness. Major growth again from teens but also a substantial growth in the 20-29 segment lead by 20-29 year old women, where Name Awareness grew from 26% to 34%. That’s not too far from the teenage awareness of 40% and a second single is likely to increase Familiarity significantly.

Another good example of correlated awareness/sales growth is Leona Lewis.

The graph below shows how in the early part of 2007, following her X-Factor win in late 2006, most of her connection scores had calmed. Familiarity did not suffer, but the silence had somewhat decreased her overall Like scores and increased dislikes significantly. Her Popscore slipped from a credible 20 to a low 13 during the summer. People nowadays are extremely impatient and can quickly lose an emotional connection to an artist if that connection is not stimulated.

When she arrived back with the single Bleeding Love, her score recovered and grew significantly. Her awareness gap nearly closed and positives grew accordingly. Unusually, despite this significant rise in familiarity, negatives only increased slightly, far less than is commonly observed with such a high level of overall growth.

Purchase intention and Love tripled since the summer of 2007 and positives grew far more significantly then the norm which shows the potential of future purchase conversions: More Awareness = More Love = More Sales.

The second biggest grower is Scouting For Girls. They recorded a 3 point increase in their total PopScore to take them one point above the average. Their core market is still deeply rooted with 13-19 year old females with whom their PopScore increased from 27 to 35 (over twice the average in this demographic). The second biggest force behind their growth came from females 30 to 39 with whom their PopScore increased by a massive 6 points to 20. Interesting stats for the marketer one might think.

Amy Winehouse recovered from a slight dip last month and increased her PopScore by 3 points to 26.which takes her well above the average. Interesting to note for some, her core target market is females 20-39 years old which is where her strongest growth is coming from. She is also enjoying considerable support from females 30-39.

This month’s biggest growth in love was enjoyed by Mark Ronson with females 20-29.

The average Purchase Propensity score for all artists in PopScores is 4% but this month two acts show a rare increase of 2 points. Muse’s score increased to 12% and Radiohead’s to 7%. These compare to 15% being the current highest score achieved by The Beatles, Red Hot Chili Peppers and Snow Patrol

Finally, we can see some hot acts buzzing on the horizon. Despite ranking below 200 because of their low total familiarity levels Ali Love, Late of the Pier and Does It Offend You, Yeah achieve above average PopScores with teenage males. It’s still early days for these acts but there are some encouraging signs which should be tracked.

There is a range of different music buying segments in the UK and with PopScores we define these core segments using age & gender demographics segmented by 10 year intervals from 13 to 59 years of age. That’s a powerful way of understanding how well or not acts connect and possibly unify one or more demographic groups

The most popular acts in the UK over the year were The Beatles and The Red Hot Chili Peppers. The Beatles’ success should come as no surprise because although they have very little connection with teenagers they remain massively popular with British adults. In fact, the Beatles break all records in terms of emotional connection with the over 50’s with almost one in two (45%) saying that they love them. To put this into context, the highest love score in any other age group was 30%.

The Chili Peppers’ strength comes from their continuing ability to unify the market and despite having been around for some considerable time they were the most popular artist with teen males during ‘07, a list that’s entirely made up of rock acts.

The overall Top 10 is entirely made up of groups and 8 of the 10 acts are rock. The other odd one out is the Scissor Sisters in 6th position. 4 of the Top 10 acts are relatively new – Snow Patrol, Kaiser Chiefs, Scissor Sisters and Coldplay.

Female teens showed a lot of love for rock during ‘07 and also for solo female acts, the most popular of whom was Pink. Edgy pop is what best defines the twenty something female. Pink, Gwen Stefani and the Scissor Sisters lead the table. The rest of the table was dominated by rock bands with the sole exception of Nelly Furtado, who came in 10th place.

Twenty something males prefer rock bands again with not a single solo artist in this segment’s Top Ten. The “sound” of the 30+ female doesn’t appear to differ much from the twenty somethings, with the exception that this segment’s top 10 also features Kylie Minogue and Bon Jovi.

In the 40+ and 50+ segments there is little room for newer acts. The exceptions are the Kaiser Chiefs and Snow Patrol who built enough love in the 40+ segment to appear in the Top 10. The other big acts in these segments all had 10+ albums to build that strong connection.

In summary, each ten year segment has its own distinctive sound. There is some overlap between age segments but one could readily programme a radio station that reflects the preferred sound for each of the segments.

This exercise confirms again that whilst some artists like Snow Patrol and the Kaiser Chiefs manage to unify 20-50 year olds, the rule is that our music preferences stay with us for a long time while we grow our emotional connection with artists. The warning message to the music industry appears to be build acts with long term careers that can last a generation or today’s teens and twenty somethings will have a lot less passion for music when they’re older. A two album career simply isn’t enough to build a long term connection.

Top Ten Most Popular Acts in the UK

1. The Beatles 
1. Red Hot Chili Peppers 
3. Snow Patrol 
4. Kaiser Chiefs 
5. REM 
6. U2 
7. Scissor Sisters 
8. Coldplay 
9. Bon Jovi 
10. The Police
 

Top Ten Most Popular Acts by Demo

13-19 Females

Pink 
Snow Patrol 
Christina Aguilera 
Nelly Furtado 
Gwen Stefani 
Killers 
Kaiser Chiefs 
Kelly Clarkson 
The Kooks 
Maroon 5
 

13-19 Males

Red Hot Chili Peppers 
Killers 
Foo Fighters 
Muse 
Razorlight 
Snow Patrol 
Gorillaz 
Arctic Monkeys 
Kaiser Chiefs 
The Zutons
 

20-29 Females

Pink 
Gwen Stefani 
Scissor Sisters 
Red Hot Chili Peppers 
Snow Patrol 
Killers 
Kaiser Chiefs 
Bon Jovi 
Green Day 
Nelly Furtado
 

20-29 Males

Red Hot Chili Peppers 
Foo Fighters 
The Beatles 
Snow Patrol 
Oasis 
Green Day 
REM 
Killers 
Nirvana 
Razorlight
 

30-39 Females

Scissor Sisters 
Robbie Williams 
Pink 
Snow Patrol 
Red Hot Chili Peppers 
Kaiser Chiefs 
Madonna 
Kylie Minogue 
Bon Jovi 
Gwen Stefani
 

30-39 Males

Red Hot Chili Peppers 
Kaiser Chiefs 
U2 
The Police 
The Beatles 
REM 
Foo Fighters 
Snow Patrol 
Green Day 
Killers
 

40-49 Females

Scissor Sisters 
Robbie Williams 
Annie Lennox 
Take That 
Meatloaf 
Earth Wind & Fire 
Genesis 
Bon Jovi 
Snow Patrol 
Stevie Wonder
 

40-49 Males

REM 
Annie Lennox 
David Bowie 
Genesis 
Scissor Sisters 
Meatloaf 
U2 
Kaiser Chiefs 
Snow Patrol 
The Police
 

50-59 Females

The Beatles 
Simon & Garfunkel 
Eric Clapton 
Stevie Wonder 
Genesis 
Meatloaf 
Elton John 
Annie Lennox 
Robbie Williams 
Bryan Adams
 

50-59 Males

The Beatles 
Simon & Garfunkel 
Eric Clapton 
Rolling Stones 
Santana 
Bob Dylan 
Genesis 
David Bowie 
Annie Lennox 
Diana Ross
The Top 10 most popular acts in the UK are a weighted result and reflect the population of the UK, i.e. larger population segments such as 40-49 year olds weight heavier than the much smaller population segment of teenagers

The Biggest Growers in 2007

The biggest growers during 2007 were The Klaxons, Amy Winehouse and The Fratellis. The Klaxons enjoyed their largest support with teen females but also with 40-49 year old males. Amy Winehouse had the strongest growth in emotional connection with 30-39 and 40-49 year old females and The Fratellis grew the most with 50+ men.

Other big gainers were Kanye West who secured considerable support from teen males and Fergie who grew strongly with 20-29 year old females and 30-39 year old males. Snow Patrol experienced the biggest increase with 50-59 year old females.

The Top Three Growers

1. The Klaxons +12 PopScore points

2. Amy Winehouse +10 points

3. The Fratellis + 9 points

The Biggest Growers By Demographic

13-19 Females: The Klaxons + 22 PopScore points

13-19 Males: Kanye West + 18 points

20-29 Females: Fergie + 20 points

20-29 Males: Klaxons + 16-points

30-39 Females: Amy Winehouse + 19 points

30-39 Males: Fergie + 15 points

40-49 Females: Amy Winehouse + 14 points

40-49 Males: Klaxons + 17 points

50-59 Females: Snow Patrol + 15 points

50-59 Males: The Fratellis + 17 points

Although X-Factor afforded her a significant amount of familiarity, only now is she close (86%) to reaching the magic barrier of 90% Name Awareness where just about everyone has heard of her. Once there, she will be in the company of household names such as Moby, Kelly Clarkson and Bryan Ferry.

The single most important market of late driving Leona has been 40-49 year old females. Her love with them quadrupled from 5% to 20% on the back of a 10% point increase in Informed Awareness to 87%. As we would expect because of the almost perfect correlation between Love and Purchase Propensity (see the article below) the latter surged by +9% points to 14% which happens to be 3 ½ times the PopScores average.

Altogether Leona’s PopScore rose by 8 points over the month taking her from 130th to 81st position.

LEONA LEWIS

Scouting For Girls are also big winners this month. Their Informed Awareness increased significantly (14% points) in their core teenage market and by 9 % points with both 20-29 and 30-39 year old females. Love and Purchase Propensity also increased across most of the female segments. Their total PopScore showed a 40% increase to 14.

The Hoosiers continued their advance. Their Name Awareness increased by 10% points to 65% and their Informed Awareness rose by 9% points. However, at 44% familiarity and an Awareness Gap of 21% (the net difference between Name and Informed Awareness) there is still much further to go.

Russell Watson’s medical situation has been widely publicized and it appears the population has responded sympathetically. His Positive score increased by nearly 30% to 19%, driven by 40-49 year old males, whilst his negative score decreased by 12% to 22%.

Radiohead have received a sensational amount of publicity since announcing their digital “name your own price” campaign. However, in terms of emotional connection it doesn’t appear to have enhanced their position in the UK. Their overall PopScore actually fell from 30 in October to 27 in December reflecting a general increase in dislikes from 13% to 15% and a decline in Love amongst teens…

RADIOHEAD