There are of course those in the industry that continue to pursue the big markets. These guys are often associated with the old school. Truth be told, they are the ones who will probably drive the music industry forwards into a more profitable world. In theory everyone is going after the same markets but there are some who seek to unify segments into major markets while others search vainly for success in the long tail.  .

Greatest success in the industry has almost always come from those artists who were able to unify the masses and that simply hasn’t changed and probably never will. PopScores shows exactly that, month by month. Only very few people are remotely interested in the millions of tracks that are available through subscription services like Napster or Spotify. It can’t work. Let’s learn from YouTube. The reason YouTube works so well is because they got the model right of how people want to view videos. YouTube runs “playlists” with a few featured videos and then there are the “most viewed”, which is a “cosmic audience conscious” or at least a chart that measures what the majority of people is “into” right now.

It’s not the billion daily views that essentially generates the hype. Surely it doesn’t hurt to have practically everything available, however, much has changed since the early days of YouTube, and there are many clips that are not available on YouTube anymore and yet the traffic stats are not in decline. When one studies PopScores, one can see that there is a “group consciousness” in the UK that shows unified audiences for some artists and it is the job of the Music Industry to continue to find those artists and songs that speak the language of the masses.

The newer artists within the cosmic consciousness of music are strongly embedded in the British public’s heart. The Kings Of Leon, Snow Patrol, Kaiser Chiefs, Pink and The Killers are currently achieve scores that are usually only within the realm of  long established artists. However, these are not new artists. It takes more than just one platinum plus selling album to establish this level of emotional connection.  

The big movements this week come from artists on their way to the top of the British consciousness. The Black Eyed Peas have another striking record on the radio and their PopScore rose by a strong 2 points with the strongest advance in the 30+ female market which bodes well for album sales. The Peas have been around long enough to get the level of connection that we understand as credibility and trust. To be fair they are not too far away, currently ranking as the 12^th most popular artist in the UK.

The highest climb this month was achieved by Michael Jackson, as the news of his death sank in deeper. During the month his PopScore rose by 5 points, the largest climb in a single month we have ever seen for any artist. He now ranks as the 11^th most popular artist in the UK. The increase of affection comes from across the board of demos.

Remarkably, Michael Jackson is now the 4^th most popular artist with teenagers; a considerable achievement given that he is surrounded by artists like Kings Of Leon, Black Eyed Peas, Pink, The Killers and Beyonce Knowles, all of whom are much younger than him. Michael makes it near the top spot with 20-29 year olds, claiming number 2 position, just behind the Kings Of Leon. The most difficult segments for Michael Jackson are ironically the 30-39 year olds who rank him at nr 20 and the 40-49 year olds who rank him at 28 and his own age group, the 50-59 year olds who rank him 36^th.

To get an idea of how this compares to last year, in November 08, Michael Jackson ranked position 54th overall!

Last but not least Beyonce’s visibility has also made a positive change. She advanced another 2 points, most of the additional affection coming from females 20-39. She’s had a good run of hit records in recent months which is naturally paying off now.

Recent data released from Hitwise shows that in the US, Facebook has increased it’s market share to 59% an increase of 194% from September last year, while MySpace has decreased to 30% a 55% decrease from last year.

I can’t say these figures come as a surprise. In July this year we released our Digital Entertainment Survey and some people raised a few eyebrows when we said MySpace was in decline. While the data recently released from Hitwise is US centric, it’s a trend that we believe has already happened in the UK.

Our figures show that 54% of UK consumers have a profile on Facebook, while for MySpace it is currently on 21%, but in 2008 it was 39% - a sharp decline, which is now being validated by site traffic. We didn’t have any data on Twitter in 2008, but in 2009 11% of UK consumers say they have a profile on Twitter and although that’s a fairly rapid rise, other recent Hitwise traffic data has also shown that Twitter has started to plateau.

Table showing % of UK consumers 15-54 with profile on each social network:

While the above figures are for all 15-54 year olds in the UK, the results do differ significantly by demographics. MySpace is much more popular among younger respondents, but key to the success of Facebook is that it is popular across all demographics.

Our data also revealed a decrease in incidence for most of the other social network sites, however there are several social network sites with smaller market share that did show increases. Last.fm increased from 6% in 2008 to 8% in 2009, while Digg increased from 2% to 4%, LinkedIn from 5% to 6% and StumbleUpon from 4% to 5%. Perhaps these sites will be the next sites to really boom, with the recent recession and increase in unemployment my money is on LinkedIn, however I don’t think it will ever get to the same heights of Facebook.

It’s clear that the first challenge is to get consumers using your site, one that Facebook, Myspace and Twitter have all achieved. The second challenge is to keep them there and while the jury is still out for Myspace and Twitter, it seems Facebook is doing the best job of that at the moment.

It’s clear from the Hitwise data that if that downward trend continues then MySpace could be in real trouble, so will they be able to arrest this decline? Only time will tell. We will be able to provide some answers in the 2010 Digital Entertainment Survey.

In the period leading up to Michael Jackson’s death, the UK felt largely indifferent towards him and this barely changed even after the announcement of his 100 UK gigs. His death however has had a transformational impact upon consumers’ emotional connection towards him and we are still only at the beginning of the curve.

His PopScore has jumped to an all time high of 30, an increase of 50% from last year and his Purchase Propensity has spiked from 10% to 13%, taking him well above the industry average.

Those who are seemingly most affected by Michael’s death over the last month are 13-19 year old females whose love for him has increased by 9 points to 25% and 20-29 year old females whose love has risen by 7 points to 23%. These scores compare very favourably with averages for artists within these demographics of 9% and 7% respectively.

Amongst the most loved artists with female teens, the only male solo artists in the Top 15 are Michael Jackson (12th) and Justin Timberlake (11th). With females aged 20-29 Michael ranks 8th and Justin 11th.

Not only has the love for Michael increased but the dislike has dropped markedly. The table below shows the negative scores by demographic and the percentage point decline since his death. The most notable reductions are with females 30-39 (20% decline) and females 16-19 (24%).

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Michael Jackson is climbing the list of artists with the greatest consumer propensity to purchase their music. His PopScore rank this month is 36 but he is 10^th in the purchase propensity table, level with U2 and Red Hot Chili Peppers.

His purchase propensity is driven by females aged 13-29 with an average of 20% which is approximately three times the average for this segment. The implication is that if there is more unreleased material, Michael Jackson is likely to dominate the sales charts again for some time, reminiscent of artists like Tupac who released chart-topping hits from the grave.  

With Michael Jackson turning fifty, news reports about impending bankruptcy and then the announcement of the O2 gigs in London early this year, the British public started to feel the passion again for the artist. His Negative scores declined markedly (to 27%), his Purchase Propensity climbed from 6 to 10% which put him in the same company as Leona Lewis, Robbie Williams and Girls Aloud and his Love score rose by 40% to 14%. In other words, he transformed into an artist with serious sales potential in the UK.

In terms of familiarity, Michael Jackson belongs to the exclusive 99% club; only a very few artists manage to score an informed awareness of that level. It means that effectively the entire UK population of 13-59 year olds has an opinion of Michael Jackson. Only Robbie Williams, Madonna, Spice Girls and Kylie Minogue have recently achieved scores like this

Even more interesting is the company he is in when looking at artists with the most informed awareness amongst teenagers. Michael Jackson is certainly the only 50 year old artist who is still very well known by Teens. The somewhat older Beatles score 86% informed awareness and Bruce Springsteen only 59%.

Top 10 Most Familiar Artists Amongst Teens

What is particularly amazing is where the passion for Michael Jackson comes from. It’s not 40 year old females as one might expect given the heritage factor; no it comes from females 13-29 (16% love) and males 20-29 (19%). Indeed, amongst the latter demographic he is the 6th most popular artist by Purchase Propensity and is only beaten by Oasis, Kings of Leon, The Killers, RHCP and Coldplay.

Michael Jackson was undoubtedly on his way to reclaim his throne as the King of Pop in the UK. Next month we will find out the extent to which his death influences the emotional connection of the nation with him.

Now, what PopScores reveals is an exceptionally strong purchase propensity for some artists and these are typically artists who sell well in the adult segments despite that market’s relatively low inclination to buy music. Take That for example have a purchase propensity which is x 5 the average in the oldest segment (and amongst women). It’s no surprise therefore that they continue to sell music at a prodigious rate.

Listed below are the twenty acts with the highest purchase propensity. Obviously being in this position is no guarantee of success if the album is poorly received but what it does provide is the lifeline to come back with something that delivers what consumers want.

Popscores Purchase Intention

Let’s focus upon Kings Of Leon. Here is an act whose Informed Awareness is only 75% which places them in 90th position. However, their purchase propensity score is an overall 16% across all demographics and that puts them in 3rd position. What is remarkable is that although Kinds Of Leon are an act with its primary market in the 13-29 year old segments they manage to score x4 the average purchase propensity with the 30-49 year old demographics and over twice the average in the 50+ year old segment.

Not only do Kings Of Leon currently command more purchase intention than the vast majority of more familiar artists, it’s highly likely that with increasing familiarity they will become one of the biggest selling artists in the UK. Only The Killers are in their company with a 79% informed awareness and a 15% purchase propensity.

Radio has not been much help recently to labels in terms of supporting their new acts and yet radio remains a very significant force. Without radio airplay it is nigh on impossible to achieve commercial success, but radio continues to go back to classic tunes, the ones with the greatest familiarity which make the hairs on your neck stand up. And why? Because much of the new music doesn’t sound like its produced for the ears but for the eyes and although the eyes can eat they can’t listen to the radio.

Many of the recent successes on the radio are not necessarily the ones you would instantly recognize on the street. The Kings Of Leon are a good example. So its no surprise that when youplay Guitar Hero or Rock Band you find that the most popular tracks are the classics with 12 year old boys battling online to songs like Hotel California. Kids worry much less about how old a track is than how buff it is and the more they get involved the less they care about the visuals.

With Beatles music due for digital release sometime this year via Rock Band kids will have the opportunity to learn about the band for the first time. It shouldn’t be a surprise then if we see something of a Beatles revival.

There are some commentators who say that today’s audiences have changed in that they are much more segmented than they were 10 years ago. They therefore argue that superstarswith mass audiences are no longer possible.Those people should start playing Guitar Hero or Rock Band and watch kids unifying over some classic Bon Jovi or Lynyrd Skynyrd. We shouldn’t always blame change; some things just don’t change.

At the heart of the internet there are lists. Lists are traffic drivers. Most viewed, Most discussed, Most listened to, most this and most that. People use lists to filter their exposure to new music. People want the best of things. For anyone serious about spreading their creative content, getting on a popular list is an absolute requirement.

Once on that list, the Mathew Effect takes over. Listed content will always grow in popularity, the extent determined only by the level of emotional connection. The more it grows, the more it will grow. That’s cumulative advantage or in simple terms, snowballing.

It’s not just the lists as we know them. It’s also about visibility, about “dressing up” content. A search on YouTube for a specific video may show up the same video several times. Tests have shown that the clip with the most views is the chosen one; the Matthew Effect at its best.

This of course also applies to different clips within the same subject.

While we’re all seeding content in the hope that people will ultimately share or recommend it, the sharing dynamic only applies when the content is perceived to be worth sharing. Generally it’s not individuals who discover music that they then share but a group or community who decide what’s best.

This of course is why social network marketing is so attractive.

If you want to see this in place then check out a property company by the name of simarc.

Getting on the list to take advantage of the Matthew effect is the most difficult hurdle. Becoming richer when you’re already rich is much easier than going from poor to rich.

Matthew Effect Marketing is the art of bypassing the natural and often slow selection process and moving directly to relevant lists where visibility can create its own impetus.

PopScores is a useful source of information to help inform the argument. For starters there are the Love scores. We know that Love is the ultimate driver of sales. For every 10 people who Love an artist, 7 will definitely consider purchasing new music by that artist. We also know from PopScores that people only love a few artists at a time; on average a little over 4 artists at once. This does vary with age & gender but not so much as to matter. Women on average love 5 artists at any one time while men love 4. Males in their teens love 3 artists whilst males 20-29 love 5 artists. Females love 6 artists when they are teenagers and progressively fewer as they age.

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Radio tells a similar story. When the first jukeboxes were installed in clubs and bars in the US, a station owner noticed that despite the large choice of songs, patrons tended to choose the same songs. That was the birth of Top 40 radio. However, 40 songs were still far too many for radio listeners and CHR was born out of necessity to play fewer songs more often. The same Love principle applies today. There aren’t enough songs around that are loved at the same time by the same people. The implication sounds very unappealing but this truth clears up many of the mysteries around music sales.

So, choice is certainly no winning argument for subscription services. The “millions of songs” available mantra will be meaningless to consumers if they feel they have to pay for the right to access them all.

Furthermore, there is always the risk of overestimating familiarity. The vast majority of the millions of songs potentially available are unfamiliar to the target consumer who is generally aware of hundreds of songs rather than thousands. Why would millions matter to them? Even an advertising-supported model may struggle to attract enough consumers to build a mass-market presence. Music is unlike TV where subscription and advertising work. MTV knew a long time ago that people wouldn’t pay an additional fee to subscribe to their Music TV offering and so it was offered free as part of a package. TV stimulates us differently from music. We spend much of our lives watching TV as a primary activity while music is often a secondary or background activity. Radio still works as an advertising-supported model but the most successful stations have small playlists and drive ratings with celebrity-based entertainment and local, relevant non music content.

PopScores shows us that people are willing to pay for music if they love it. Music doesn’t have to rely on being supported by advertising or to be thrown into a pool of millions of songs that one might eventually stream. What music relies on is Love. The love a consumer has for an artist and/or song which is seemingly at odds with a volume for volume sake proposition.

At the same time free music affords huge value to businesses like YouTube. Let me make this clear - YouTube would not be remotely where it is without music and companies like Viacom and artists like Prince have long understood this and want to be compensated accordingly. Check it out if you don’t believe me - YouTube’s Top 100 most viewed clips of all time are dominated by music. No other content category delivers as much permanent value as music. What I mean by this is simple. Other categories do drive short term traffic to YouTube and do make Today’s most viewed honours, but after the short term limelight they quickly disappear pretty much forever. Compare Katy Perry’s I kissed A Girl with a Sarah Palin Interview. Which one do you think we’ll still be watching in 10, maybe 20 years time? Which therefore has permanent value?

Music never stops generating traffic. Kids know to go to YouTube for a brand new Panic! At The Disco c lip and thousands of others watch 50 year old Beatles clips over and over again.

Sure , the value depends up on demand like everything else but don’t tell me that music has no value. Without music or without having infringed copyright on a huge scale, YouTube would just be another copyright-respecting Spike (iFilm) and therefore way less successful. The music industry has learned its lesson and now keeps licensing deals very short knowing that soon it will be time to get some of that value back.

Sometimes I hear people talking about how YouTube showed giants like MTV how it’s done and that frustrates me. When you respect copyright, there ’s very little one can do to compete with those who infringe.

YouTube had its big break with the embedded player. Suddenly millions of websites were pointing to YouTube and breaching copyright. Their message was something like “hey kid, you like this clip so just play it on your profile page”. And the Google bots started indexing links to YouTube on a never seen before scale, sending traffic to YouTube in the millions. End of story.

We are in an age where a lot of self-interested business development execs and snake-oil digital strategists talk about paradigm shifts, pulling culture, music democracy and so on.

The fact is music comes attached with copyright and has huge value for businesses and consumers alike. Permanent value.

For this reason established artists can make extraordinary use of new media and rely less on the pushing power of record companies hence Nettwerks’s achievement with Avril Lavigne and Live Nation’s ideas with Madonna. However, until an artist commands that level of familiarity, nothing can replace the traditional push strategy.

The average chart video is 23% less familiar than the song. That’s because songs are pushed on the radio making it incredibly hard for new artists to break-through without radio. Radio works because it filters product for its listeners and exposes them to music they eventually love. Pushing can work online just the same. We like to believe that when something is right for a market it will take-off simply through word of mouse but that’s rarely the case, especially when it comes to music. An extremely funny music video may work virally but may still not sell music. Visuals are important but even more important is the story told and to whom.

Recently, a new artist’s music video on YouTube was scoring about 100 plays per day globally which was credible but wholly insufficient to build substantial familiarity and a following. Few people where paying with their attention. The very same video was then featured by YouTube and generated 120,000 views in twenty four hours and was able to build a substantial subscriber base. The video now scores about 1,000-2,000 views per day and the artist is building a large following. The power of push.

In the 90’s, 70% of video product couldn’t find a home and was never played. Today there is a home on the internet for every piece of content but without getting selected, filtered and eventually pushed by a trusted entity, it remains unplayed. Distributing content is not pushing content. Too often we expect songs and videos to fly just because they are good and deserve success and are then disappointed when success eludes them. It may not be fashionable to admit it but the push model is as relevant as ever